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Moving out of Upstate New York won’t make you rich

President Donald Trump has many times suggested that people should move from Upstate New York to places where there are more jobs. In his quote to the Wall Street Journal about two years ago:

“You’re going to need people to work in these massive plants,” Trump told the newspaper. “I’m going to start explaining to people: When you have an area that just isn’t working like upper New York state, where people are getting very badly hurt, and then you’ll have another area 500 miles away where you can’t get people, I’m going to explain, you can leave. It’s OK. Don’t worry about your house.”

This is pretty solid economic advice – people should consider moving to places where there are better jobs – so they have more choices in employment, more possibilities to make more money.

But I’m sure the President is aware there is more to relocating than just selling your home, renting a trailer to tow behind your pickup and moving to a different part of the country. It’s hard to leave your family and friends to move from your hometown to a place where there are more jobs.

Moreover, nowhere are sustainable, long term jobs popping up in the rural countryside or small towns, all of the action in American capitalism is happening in the big cities and metropolitan regions. Like New York City or Los Angeles. You can’t expect to move from rural or small town New York to somewhere in the south or Midwest and instantly have a better life. Part of the price of living in farm country or the mountains is lower wages and less economic opportunities.

Simply said automation and mechanization has eliminated a great deal of rural and small town jobs. Almost all Americans economic activity occurs in large Metropolitan Areas and their suburbs. Most rural areas and small cities are almost entirely dependent on government jobs and welfare, such as school teachers, highway workers, and social security payments even if the legacy industries like agriculture and manufacturing which employee few are highlighted by the politicians. While living in the country is cheaper – you can meet your basic needs more on farm or on the homestead, you still are giving up economic gain by not moving to a big city.

Now to be sure there are political reasons to consider moving to another state – gun laws, restrictions on fireworks, open burning, or cannabis – for example. Rural freedom is better in red states for sure, where the government is closer in sync with the needs of farm families and other rural residents. Or you just want to pay less in taxes in exchange for less services. Rural states lack the costly infrastructure and legacy needs of big states Those are valid reasons for going red state for country living. But not necessarily alone in the search for a better job when most of America outside of metropolitan areas is struggling.

Nothing Wrong With Saying Good Things About the President.

The conventional wisdom of the day says, never say anything good about President Donald Trump. He’s a man from the other political party, he must be wrong at all time. But I disagree. I think when he does good things, you should say good things about the President. Maybe he’s not perfect, and maybe there are better alternatives for 2020, but when he does good I think you should be positive towards him to the extent he’s doing good.

College Education vs Average Democratic Performance

Democrats do best in highly educated election districts and those with few people with college degrees. I think some of this is race based - some of the least educated election districts have a high percentage of African Americans and are dense urban areas in New York City. 

College Education vs Average Democratic Performance

Maintenance matters most

The cliche that got a lot of people mad at me at the end of 2022 was saying, “years don’t really matter much, decades matter much more”. To make people even madder at my, I pointed out years are only meaningful in how they contribute to the decade. A whole is the sum of it’s parts. But that’s so true.

One thing I’m seeing over and over about healthy eating, it’s much like investing and personal finance. Each little investment isn’t that much in the grand scheme of things, you will never have a secure future or retirement with one investment. But over time, that buck or two here and there, every day adds up. Likewise, each calorie consumed adds on to the waistline, each unhealthy food eaten leads you closer and closer to an untimely death.

Future goals are big and distant, as they are the sum of so many parts. But each part is meaningful as it contributes to the future. It’s true that life is like a flywheel in an engine, an occasional misfire here and there won’t add up to much. But that should not be an excuse for operating an engine that is regularly misfiring, as damage accumulates. People often think it’s okay to give excuses for occasional misdeeds or misfires — that occasional slice of cake or cup of store bought coffee– some liberties to lighten life up, but that is a dangerous practice.

There are things out of your control that you can’t address — like the a downturn in the market or that cup of coffee on the road you need to stay alert to drive home safely. Maybe you have to go out and have an unhealthy meal with some friends. But you should avoid incidental bad behaviors whenever possible. Misfiring in an engine is harmful, as it to your goals. Just because you can survive an occasional misfire, doesn’t mean you should build into your life.

The best thing when it comes to self-improvement is automation. I have a set investment and savings plan, I rarely look at it or give it much thought. A few times a year, I’ll check on my net worth but normally the money comes out of my paycheck and is invested. Each morning I go for a walk at 6:15 AM and each evening at 7:00 PM, regardless of weather, because it’s important to get my default 10,000 plus steps in. Likewise, I just make it the default option to buy healthier foods, and follow the one bowl or plate rule. As I don’t eat out often at all, whatever I buy is what I end up eating. I continue to learn to be a better cook and eater, but it’s not because I intend to be thinking about it non-stop, but because I want to make sensible defaults that make eating healthier the default option.

A lot of people think it takes willpower or effort to do the right thing. But that’s not the truth. If you want to do something, it’s best to automate it and give it as little thought as possible. And just move forward.

DOGE is mostly a messaging scheme to legitimatize keeping the Trump tax cuts

Really it’s that’s simple.

Most of the waste, fraud and abuse found by DOGE is simply things that current administration does not support or is contracts already expired or soon to be expired.

Truth is most things government does is legitimate, at least to the constituencies it benefits. People elect representatives to bring home the bacon, they want their communities and interests to be supported by their tax dollars. That only makes sense.

Does that mean the tax cuts should go away? No, not necessarily. We pay a lot in taxes and we should have a discussion about the scope and size of government. The defense and police establishment seems particularly bloated, having expanded enormously since the 1990s. We would do better if we reduced the number of laws needing enforcing, and help law enforcement find jobs in the private sector.

The government can tax less and provide less unnecessary enforcement.