Friday the 13th

The superstition surrounding Friday the 13th is a “double whammy” of two separate fears: the belief that Friday is an unlucky day and that 13 is an unlucky number. While its exact origin is murky, it is widely rooted in Western religious and cultural traditions.Β 

Core Superstitions and Behaviors

On this day, people often avoid specific actions to ward off perceived misfortune: 

  • Dining with 13 people: Many believe having 13 guests at a table is a bad omen, with some fearing one of them will die within a year.
  • Starting new projects: It is traditionally considered an unlucky day to begin a journey, get married, or start a new job.
  • General “bad luck” triggers: Common superstitions like walking under a ladder, breaking a mirror (7 years of bad luck), spilling salt, and crossing paths with a black cat are often taken more seriously on this date.Β 

Origins of the Fear

The dread associated with this date typically stems from three major areas: 

  • Christian Tradition:
    • The Last Supper: Judas Iscariot, the betrayer, was the 13th guest at the Last Supper.
    • Crucifixion: Jesus was crucified on a Friday.
    • Biblical “Firsts”: Some believe Adam and Eve ate the forbidden fruit and Cain killed Abel on a Friday the 13th.
  • Norse Mythology: At a dinner in Valhalla for 12 gods, the trickster god Loki arrived uninvited as the 13th guest, leading to the death of Balder, the god of light.
  • Historical Events: On Friday, October 13, 1307, King Philip IV of France ordered the mass arrest of the Knights Templar, a powerful military order, leading to their torture and execution.Β 

Modern Impact and Terminology

  • Economic Cost: Between 17 and 21 million Americans are estimated to fear the date, causing a measurable dip in economic activityβ€”estimated at $700 to $900 millionβ€”as people avoid flying or making major purchases.
  • Psychology:
    • Triskaidekaphobia: The fear of the number 13.
    • Paraskevidekatriaphobia (or Friggatriskaidekaphobia): The specific fear of Friday the 13th.
  • Buildings: Many high-rises, hotels, and hospitals omit the 13th floor or room number 13 to accommodate superstitious guests.Β 

Cultural Variations

Not every culture views Friday the 13th as unlucky:

  • Spain and Hispanic countries: Tuesday the 13th (Martes 13) is the unlucky day.
  • Italy: Friday the 17th is considered far more ominous.
  • China: The number 13 is often considered lucky.Β 

S&P 500 Over the Years

I think as the year closed out I took the market decline too personally when we are all suffering from the declines in our portfolio. And it's not like these declines are permanent or even long lasting when you look at the history of the markets. It's a set back the year that was but things will get better eventually. 

S&P 500 Over the Years

6 U.S. Crew Members Killed in Refueling Plane Crash; Hegseth Vows to Reopen Strait as Oil Prices Remain High – The New York Times

Iran Live Updates: 6 U.S. Crew Members Killed in Refueling Plane Crash; Hegseth Vows to Reopen Strait as Oil Prices Remain High – The New York Times

So what makes this one worse?

Many of the hallmarks of the 1973 shock were a result of poor domestic policy decisions, and the hit to supply is far greater now, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a research firm. Policies like rationing set off panic buying, creating shortages instead of easing the problem.

The 1973 embargoed oil accounted for about 7 percent of global oil consumption, and targeted only a handful of nations. That meant the United States could still buy some oil from other countries.

Now, closer to 20 percent of the world’s supply is threatened, and the disruption is caused by a war that has no end in sight. The United States, Israel and Iran are all dug in, and daily threats to oil production, refining and storage mean that even when ships can sail again the supply might not come back quickly.

The conflict has the potential to cause a lasting inflationary cycle, as rising prices for everything from diesel to fertilizer are passed on. That could add pressure on a world economy that is already contending with President Trump’s trade war.

Melted

A fairly common sign you see in the Pine Bush is where the plastic trail markers have melted from past controlled burns. Generally the ground fires aren't hot enough to burn the markers on the posts, but are hot enough to melt the trail markers.

Saturday March 30, 2019 — Albany Pine Bush